Martingale System
casinoA betting system where you double your bet after every loss, theoretically recovering all losses with one win. It doesn't work long-term.
Key Takeaways
- 1Double your bet after every loss to recover losses
- 2Fails due to table limits, bankroll limits, and math
- 3Same expected value as flat betting — just different variance
- 4No betting system can overcome a negative EV game
What is the Martingale System?
The Martingale System is a betting strategy where you double your bet after every loss. The theory is that when you eventually win, you'll recover all previous losses plus a profit equal to your original bet.
How It Works
| Bet # | Wager | Result | Running P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | Loss | -$10 |
| 2 | $20 | Loss | -$30 |
| 3 | $40 | Loss | -$70 |
| 4 | $80 | Loss | -$150 |
| 5 | $160 | Win | +$10 |
After 4 losses and 1 win, you're up $10. Sounds great, right?
Why It Fails
- Table limits — Casinos have maximum bets. After 7-8 losses, you hit the ceiling.
- Bankroll limits — Starting at $10, you'd need $10,230 to survive 10 consecutive losses.
- The math doesn't change — Each bet still has a negative expected value. Doubling a -EV bet doesn't create +EV.
- Losing streaks happen — 10 consecutive losses on a coin flip has a 0.1% chance per 1,000 sequences. It will happen.
The Proof
The Martingale system has the same expected value as flat betting the same total amount. It just redistributes the variance — small wins most of the time, catastrophic losses occasionally. The house edge remains unchanged.
Bottom Line
No betting system can overcome a negative expected value game. The Martingale is mathematically guaranteed to fail given enough time.
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