Implied Probability

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage that represents the likelihood of an outcome occurring, as priced by the market.

Conversion Formulas

American Odds:

• Negative odds: IP = |odds| / (|odds| + 100)
• Positive odds: IP = 100 / (odds + 100)

Decimal Odds:

• IP = 1 / decimal odds

Example

-150 American odds:

• IP = 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%

This means the market prices this outcome at a 60% chance of occurring.

Important Note

Implied probabilities from a single sportsbook will sum to more than 100% — the excess is the vig/hold. To find the "true" implied probability, you need to remove the vig.